Explore prediction markets in Guarda

Trade on real-world events like elections, markets, sports, and trends – all inside your wallet.

What is Prediction Market?

This is a place where people trade on future events. You predict what will happen and benefit if your prediction is correct. You trade with other users — not against a company. This is not betting. It is an open peer-to-peer market.

How It Works?

For example, you see a market called: "Will Candidate X win the election?" The price for "Yes" is $0.60, which means people think there is 60% chance it will happen. You place $100 on your prediction. Each share costs $0.60. A share is like a small part of the prediction — if you are correct, each share settles at $1. You buy about 166 shares with your $100.

EXAMPLE

$3.85M Vol. Chance 60%

Yes No

You decide to buy Yes and invest $100.

Scenario A Candidate X wins

Your prediction is correct

Your shares are now worth $1.00 each.

Calculation: 166.6 shares × $1 = $166.60

Net Profit: $166.60 (Payout) − $100 (Cost) = $66.60

Scenario B Candidate X loses

Your prediction is incorrect

The share price drops to $0.00.

Calculation: 166.6 shares × $0 = $0.00

Net Loss: −$100.00. You lose your initial investment.

Why Trade Predictions in Guarda?

Designed to be simple and accessible

Safe & Secure

Trade directly inside Guarda – no risky websites, no phishing, no scams

Easy & Convenient

Browse markets and buy or sell predictions right in your browser or desktop app

Full Self-Custody

You remain in control of your funds at all times

Step 1. Open the Guarda Web/Desktop App

Step 2. Go to Predictions

Navigate to the new "Predictions" tab in the main menu.

Step 3. Check Your Balance

Ensure you have a Polygon wallet. If you don't have Polygon, tap to create.

Step 4. Make Your First Prediction

Choose a market, place your bet, and track the outcome.

Step 5. Track the Outcome

Follow your predictions and see the results when the event resolves.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are Prediction Markets?: Prediction markets are on-chain markets where users can participate in outcomes of real-world events. Each outcome has a price that reflects the market's expectations and changes dynamically based on supply and demand. Guarda provides non-custodial access to prediction markets via Polymarket.
What assets do I need to start trading?: You need USDC.e on Polygon to place predictions, as well as a small amount of POL (formerly MATIC) to pay for network gas fees. You can easily swap supported cryptocurrencies for these assets directly inside Guarda Wallet. All transactions are executed on-chain, and fees depend on network conditions.
A service fee may apply to transactions made via the interface
Do I need to register or pass KYC?: No. There is no separate registration or KYC process in Guarda. You access prediction markets directly using your non-custodial wallet.
Why can't I access prediction markets in my country?: Prediction markets may be restricted in certain jurisdictions due to local regulations. Access may vary depending on your location and restrictions set by Polymarket. Users are responsible for ensuring compliance with applicable laws.
What are the risks of prediction markets?: Participation involves risk, including partial or total loss of funds. Market outcomes, pricing and liquidity may vary.
What kinds of events are available?: Prediction markets may cover a range of events, including crypto, finance, sports, politics and other real-world topics. Availability may vary.

Ok, let's predict!

Important Geographic Restrictions

Please note that this service relies on Polymarket's underlying protocol. Access to prediction markets may be restricted in certain jurisdictions (such as the United States) due to local regulations. If you are located in a restricted region, the feature may be unavailable or limited in accordance with Polymarket's terms of service.